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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.